I’ve been on a rather buying spree this month. I think I needed to review my cash balance all over again to see how much I have left.
I added Comfortdelgro this week by buying 11,000 shares at a share price of $2.43 (5,000 shares) and $2.41 (6,000 shares) on two different tranches.
This is a company which I had to do my thesis presentation for my MBA corporate finance class about 3 years ago, and I have to admit that the business has so many different divisions and in so many different parts of the country that it makes it difficult to prospect.
I don’t think I have to run through the financials and their recent full year results as it is available easily on the sgx website.
I’d just quickly run through what I feel is important to take note.
For so many years, many investors have prospected Comfortdelgro as a single digit growth company with earnings coming from various division.
The public transport division (bus & railways) take up almost 45% of the pie, while the taxi division takes up the other 40%. The rest of the 15% can be divided amongst the driving center, car leasing, vehicle inspection and engineering service.
The company has operated at a steady net margin over the years of around 7.5% and they payout about 65% to 70% of the company’s earnings as dividend. Dividend yield is at around 4%.
Balance sheet has strengthened over the years and the company has been a net cash company for a long time. Net cash per share is currently at 44 cents.
The bus segment, both overseas and local is the probably the only division worth hoping for as the company moves towards the contracting model framework which has benefitted the UK model so much and is already proven to be a success looking at how SBS has performed. SBS has also stated optimistic outlook in the bus division for FY17.
DTL3 will commence operations in the 2H17 and there is a big expectation on this to be successful. To me, I think costs will continue to start creeping in and margins are still relatively unknown so I’m more wary than hopeful on this.
The taxi division will almost definitely be lower as they face pressure from various competitions such as grab and uber and leasing also has stated to be lower.
At this valuation, the company is not cheap. I repeat not cheap.
They seem cheap because many investors are anchoring their share price and valuation to what it is for the past 3 years, where valuation has gone to as high as 22x. This is similar to Keppel when folks used to anchor their share price when oil was at its peak. We need to remind ourselves when we invest in these decisions.
EV/EBITDA is also at around 6.5x. That is almost fair valuation.
If you look at the various analyst’s report on CDG, I found Citibank and CIMB Research on CDG to be overly bullish. If I recall, they built in higher positive single digit growth and gave a higher valuation at around 19x. In addition, they were so bullish about the contribution of DTL3 contributing to the bottomline. It ends up with a target price of around $3. I think that’s way overly optimistic at this moment and unlikely to happen within the next 12 months. So don’t get your hopes up.
My plan on buying this is likely to hinge for a short term trade of 10% (4% dividend yield + 6% capital gain). If it reaches my desired target, I may let it go depending on any further news development and review thereafter.
My theses is based on the projection that the company will stalled their growth in FY17 but will have a higher dividend payout as they are freeing up more cashflow since they have less maintenance capex to deal with. So I think 4% yield is almost a certainty for me within the next year.
If you are an investor buying this thinking that it may go back to $3 fast, then I think it’s almost quite impossible in the near term (next 1 year). You may want to rethink your decision.
If you are an investor buying this for the long term, I think it’d do just fine. You can sit back, relax, collect dividend and wait for the shares to retrace back to the higher range of the valuation. I think there is always a chance given the company often engage in M&A activities.
If you need further margin of safety, then I think you can wait till the selling dust has settled and it goes below their long term valuation.
Whether or not this is a suitable buy, I think it depends on what our objective is.