You might have attended many classes that advocate Dollar Cost Averaging method and thought DCA investing in a good company can be a sure win strategy over the long term.
Dollar Cost Averaging is a strategy where you spread out your money over a period of time, entering the company at different intervals. During good times where valuation is higher, you get lesser units while during bad times you get more units.
You can read this similar strategy employed by one of our community friend here. He’s been doing it for over a year and has accumulated 7.5 lots so far.
The key here is to make sure you invest in a good and right company over the long term.
In this post, I’ll try to attempt to provide a case for argument that it might not be always the case.
You might have thought that I will come up with some shitty company but the company we are using here is Singtel, a top favorite among investors.
O.M.G… What happens to Singtel?
Singtel is a company that has fallen through the roof over the years despite building its presence larger across the regional.
The share price has come under scrutiny, and it dropped massively this year with funds selling telcos in anticipation of a 4th telco coming this year.
I’m stealing this graph from an TA expert in Investing Note |
Case Study 1 – Investing Singtel at the Peak 10 years ago
Let’s assume you are new to investing back in 2007 and raring to go ahead with growing your money after listening to all the bull talk you attended in a seminar.
You put all your hard earned money into possibly one of the safest company listed in SGX, and you got it at a peak of $4.22 back in Oct 2007.
Then the Great Financial Recession came.
Every stocks in the world fall and you are despaired with the decision to invest all your money at the top of the peak.
You try to convince yourself to remain calm and would come out of the bear alive and well. But since you are scarred by the recent experience, you decide to leave it and not invest further.
Singtel | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Type | Costs ($) | Dividends Received | Net Costs ($) |
Oct-07 | Buy | 4.22 | – | 4.22 |
Jan-08 | – | – | 0.056 | 4.16 |
Aug-08 | – | – | 0.069 | 4.10 |
Jan-09 | – | – | 0.056 | 4.04 |
Aug-09 | – | – | 0.069 | 3.97 |
Jan-10 | – | – | 0.062 | 3.91 |
Aug-10 | – | – | 0.08 | 3.83 |
Jan-11 | – | – | 0.068 | 3.76 |
Aug-11 | – | – | 0.19 | 3.57 |
Jan-12 | – | – | 0.068 | 3.50 |
Aug-12 | – | – | 0.09 | 3.41 |
Jan-13 | – | – | 0.068 | 3.34 |
Aug-13 | – | – | 0.1 | 3.24 |
Jan-14 | – | – | 0.068 | 3.18 |
Aug-14 | – | – | 0.1 | 3.08 |
Jan-15 | – | – | 0.068 | 3.01 |
Aug-15 | – | – | 0.107 | 2.90 |
Jan-16 | – | – | 0.068 | 2.83 |
Aug-16 | – | – | 0.107 | 2.73 |
Jan-17 | – | – | 0.068 | 2.66 |
Aug-17 | – | – | 0.107 | 2.55 |
Jan-18 | – | – | 0.098 | 2.45 |
Today | – | 3.33 | – | |
XIRR % | 2.63% |
What happens here is that the dividends act as a panadol to eventually lower your average costs while waiting for the share price to recover.
In the 10 years you are invested, you received a total of $1.76 worth of dividends or 42% of your initial invested capital.
Taking into account today price of $3.33, your ROI over the 10 years came out to be 2.63% / annum.
You are pleased that the investment turned out to be positive at the end but yet not proud of it since 2.63% is only slightly higher than the risk free rate 2.5% of CPF (OA) and lower than the SA return you get.
Case Study 2 – DCA Investing From the Peak Until Today
In the second case study, we look at similar investing from the peak back in Oct 2007 but this time the investor did DCA investing evenly across a timeframe of twice a year.
For easier purpose, I am assuming the investor keeps on adding equivalent number of units every time after the company has paid out dividends.
What this means is during the GFC and Euro crisis period, his average costs would get lower as he continued to DCA and get more units, but on the other side he would get lesser units when Singtel recovered back to the peak sometime in 2015.
His average costs turned out to be $3.43 after taking into account dividend.
Singtel | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Type | Costs ($) | Dividends Received | Net Costs ($) |
Oct-07 | Buy | 4.22 | – | 4.22 |
Jan-08 | Buy | 3.65 | 0.056 | 3.91 |
Aug-08 | Buy | 3.53 | 0.069 | 3.76 |
Jan-09 | Buy | 2.66 | 0.056 | 3.47 |
Aug-09 | Buy | 3.14 | 0.069 | 3.39 |
Jan-10 | Buy | 3.01 | 0.062 | 3.32 |
Aug-10 | Buy | 3.08 | 0.08 | 3.27 |
Jan-11 | Buy | 3.1 | 0.068 | 3.24 |
Aug-11 | Buy | 3.11 | 0.19 | 3.21 |
Jan-12 | Buy | 3.1 | 0.068 | 3.19 |
Aug-12 | Buy | 3.39 | 0.09 | 3.20 |
Jan-13 | Buy | 3.5 | 0.068 | 3.22 |
Aug-13 | Buy | 3.51 | 0.1 | 3.23 |
Jan-14 | Buy | 3.53 | 0.068 | 3.25 |
Aug-14 | Buy | 3.89 | 0.1 | 3.29 |
Jan-15 | Buy | 4.08 | 0.068 | 3.33 |
Aug-15 | Buy | 4.06 | 0.107 | 3.37 |
Jan-16 | Buy | 3.51 | 0.068 | 3.37 |
Aug-16 | Buy | 4.02 | 0.107 | 3.40 |
Jan-17 | Buy | 3.87 | 0.068 | 3.42 |
Aug-17 | Buy | 3.71 | 0.107 | 3.43 |
Jan-18 | Buy | 3.61 | 0.098 | 3.43 |
Today | – | 3.33 | – | |
XIRR % | -0.31% |
To most people surprise, the ROI is actually even worse where it is slightly negative than what it is today.
You might have been better putting your money in a savings account, if it is that bad and it is the reality today.
Final Thoughts
There’s a few thoughts and conclusions that I gather from this exercise.
We always talk about don’t invest in shitty companies but hardly ever anyone points out that Singtel is one of those shitty company being mentioned.
You might have thought with Singtel only paying mostly 70% payout over the past decade, they are able to grow the company much larger with the remaining retained earnings.
Turns out that while the company did indeed grow their regional presence larger through increasing stakes in their associates , the valuation does not follow those of S&P large cap companies we see in the US market.
While book value has increased from $1.29 in 2007 to $1.81 in 2018, earnings per share has dropped from 24.8 cents in 2007 to 21.8 cents in 2018. That is to say that despite growing their businesses regionally, earnings have fallen organically.
Singtel is not valued on their book value, which is why the increase in their book value will not matter. If EBITDA has not improved, then the valuations is measured such that Singtel has not grown over the years.
This is different from other industries such as banks and developers where they are being valued straight from their book value. Low price to book value and high ROE is my preferred strategy in these industries.
Investing in Singtel is not a bullet proof strategy.
Everyone can have their bad days.
Interesting results.. pardon my inability in math to understand but any explanation why the DCA returns ended up worse? Is DCA a scam? Thanks
JJ
Hi JJ
DCA isn't a scam but it's not known to yield very high in the first place. The idea is to spread across the risk but the reward gets compressed as well.
In the case of Singtel, unfortunately in that 10 years, you have a lot of case from 2015 to 2018 where the share price is very high, so DCA would mean averaging up and as the share price falls heavily this year, it'll get badly impacted.
Hi B
It doesn’t look intuitive from the table. The highest purchased price was $4.22 on Oct 07. Over the years you DCA down the buying price, but why did the DCA investment returns ended up worse than the lumsum investment? I can’t seem to figure it out. Hmm
JJ
Oh.. is it because the total dividends received in the lump sum investment is higher due to a higher initial uinits. The lump sum portfolio dividends in this case became a cost reducer.. so this case is valid based upon the returns of idling funds waiting to be invested DCA was lower than the dividend yield. So the reduction in purchase price over the was smaller than the dividend yield which then resulted in higher average cost?
Hmm. So to find the true value of DCA we have to weight in dividend yield vs magnitude of beta, and opportunity cost of cash.
JJ
Hi JJ
I redid the exercise as pointed out by some of the comments.
I re-did the exercise as replied to GH Chua using 1000 per units on the DCA exercise. I get the same as you in terms of the final units of 6,348 and also amended the dividends received (my mistake in my excel formula there) to receive dividends of $6,622 throughout that 10 years. Adding that into the initial cost, we would get an average costs of $22,000 less $6,622 at $15,378, which then if I spread it across the 10 years, I'd get a 2.72% XIRR.
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Hard to find any foolproof Method in the stock market
Hi Uncle CW
Indeed there isn't almost always.
The key is in the entry point.
Unfortunately, the example you have shown on SingTel using DCA didn't really reflect the true concept of the strategy – i.e. "During good times where valuation is higher, you get lesser units while during bad times you get more units." You have used an equivalent number of units (not fixed amount of dollars invested) which makes a big difference in the long run.
Also, do note that DCA works best on more volatile stocks and might not work well with stocks with lower volatility in the long run.
Hi GH Chua
Thanks for pointing that out but your statement is not entirely true that it'll make a lot of difference (If you have your model please share with us).
I re-run the model using fixed amount of dollars invested. Assuming an investment of $1000 each round, there would be a total of 22 rounds and amount invested is $22,000. Comparing against the total units accumulated at 6,348 units at $3.33, that amounted to $21,139. Inclusive of dividend that are being received for every accumulated units, it would add another $1,024 to the numbers. That is equivalent to $22,163, which is flat across 10 years.
I also suppose your DCA definition is different because you talk about volatility stocks. I suppose your definition of DCA is lower cost averaging but mine is about doing it at every same interval.
Thanks.
Sorry, my small mistake, the dividend numbers should reduce from the $21,139 so the number would end up at $20,115 after dividends. Annualizing the returns after 10 years would be equivalent to 0.2% return, which is just slightly positive.
Just an update on the exercise:
I re-did the exercise using 1000 per units on the DCA exercise. In terms of the final units of 6,348 and also amended the dividends received (my mistake in my excel formula there) to receive dividends of $6,622 throughout that 10 years. Adding that into the initial cost, we would get an average costs of $22,000 less $6,622 at $15,378, which then if I spread it across the 10 years, I'd get a 2.72% XIRR.
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Are telcos inherently a good investment?
In SG, the market is saturated and fully penetrated, almost no room for customer growth.
I’m sure this is the case in every other developed market. Unless you are able to snatch market share from competitors or you go to developing countries like Myanmar and Cambodia. Even there some of the poor people has smartphones (i have seen it).
You ‘d probably be able to derive good dividends from their shares due to the stable subscriber base
Hi Anonymous
I think the telcos company realized that and they will not be betting their money on the growth in the traditional local sector.
While the traditional offering is still valid in play right now, it's becoming saturated and we've seen M1 and Singtel pave the way for an IOT capex for the past few quarters. I think we'll see them going into that direction in the near future.
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shouldn't the dividend received be increasing (in multiples) as his number of shares increases? in which case his net cost would go down and XIRR would go up.
Thanks for pointing out.
I reworked my exercise above as per my reply to Relf.
Yeah. he also assumed that: in the first case, all the money is put inside at 1 go; in the second case, the money is gradually put inside, but the idle money is earning 0 returns before the investment. Clearly, its not like for like.
In any case, this seems to be quite a pointless exercise? Using 1 example doesnt seem quite statistically relevant.
Yup the dca table is a bit off.
Firstly the net costs column should decrease faster as more shares are bought at lower prices & less shares at higher prices.
Secondly the total dividends will be increasing as the number of shares increase, further reducing the net cost at faster rate.
Hi Anonymous
Thanks for pointing out.
I reworked my exercise above as per my reply to Relf.
Appreciate your thoughts.
Yes, agree with the previous commentator that the figures for the DCA don't seem to be correct.
I am getting 2.2% for one off and 4.6% for DCA, using the figures in the blog. Haha.
***
The first case is a straightforward XIRR.
Oct-07 -4.22
Jan-08 0.056
Aug-08 0.069
Jan-09 0.056
Aug-09 0.069
Jan-10 0.062
Aug-10 0.08
Jan-11 0.068
Aug-11 0.19
Jan-12 0.068
Aug-12 0.09
Jan-13 0.068
Aug-13 0.1
Jan-14 0.068
Aug-14 0.1
Jan-15 0.068
Aug-15 0.107
Jan-16 0.068
Aug-16 0.107
Jan-17 0.068
Aug-17 0.107
Jan-18 0.098
TODAY 3.33
XIRR: 2.21%
***
The second case, I assume the cost is 100 units is invested at each of the 22 time periods.
Date Units Costs ($)
Oct-07 24 4.22
Jan-08 27 3.65
Aug-08 28 3.53
Jan-09 38 2.66
Aug-09 32 3.14
Jan-10 33 3.01
Aug-10 32 3.08
Jan-11 32 3.1
Aug-11 32 3.11
Jan-12 32 3.1
Aug-12 29 3.39
Jan-13 29 3.5
Aug-13 28 3.51
Jan-14 28 3.53
Aug-14 26 3.89
Jan-15 25 4.08
Aug-15 25 4.06
Jan-16 28 3.51
Aug-16 25 4.02
Jan-17 26 3.87
Aug-17 27 3.71
Jan-18 28 3.61
Total Units: 635
The blog mentioned that purchases are made after dividends. Hence the dividends are calculated based the number of pre-purchase units:
Date Units for Div Div Per Share Dividends Received
Oct-07 –
Jan-08 24 0.056 1
Aug-08 51 0.069 4
Jan-09 79 0.056 4
Aug-09 117 0.069 8
Jan-10 149 0.062 9
Aug-10 182 0.08 15
Jan-11 215 0.068 15
Aug-11 247 0.19 47
Jan-12 279 0.068 19
Aug-12 311 0.09 28
Jan-13 341 0.068 23
Aug-13 369 0.1 37
Jan-14 398 0.068 27
Aug-14 426 0.1 43
Jan-15 452 0.068 31
Aug-15 476 0.107 51
Jan-16 501 0.068 34
Aug-16 529 0.107 57
Jan-17 554 0.068 38
Aug-17 580 0.107 62
Jan-18 607 0.098 59
So for each time period, the cashflow is 100 minus the dividends received. Based on the current price of 3.33, 635 units would be approx 2114. Hence, we can calculate the XIRR based on it.
Oct-07 -100
Jan-08 -99
Aug-08 -96
Jan-09 -96
Aug-09 -92
Jan-10 -91
Aug-10 -85
Jan-11 -85
Aug-11 -53
Jan-12 -81
Aug-12 -72
Jan-13 -77
Aug-13 -63
Jan-14 -73
Aug-14 -57
Jan-15 -69
Aug-15 -49
Jan-16 -66
Aug-16 -43
Jan-17 -62
Aug-17 -38
Jan-18 -41
TODAY 2,114
XIRR: 4.63%
*there might be minor differences due to rounding
Hi Relf
Thanks for doing the exercise.
I re-did the exercise as replied to GH Chua using 1000 per units on the DCA exercise. I get the same as you in terms of the final units of 6,348 and also amended the dividends received (my mistake in my excel formula there) to receive dividends of $6,622 throughout that 10 years. Adding that into the initial cost, we would get an average costs of $22,000 less $6,622 at $15,378, which then if I spread it across the 10 years, I'd get a 2.72% XIRR.
Thanks for pointing out!
Hi, thanks for redoing this too.
Not sure how you got 2.72% XIRR. Which is quite far off from my rough calculations of 4.63% XIRR.
With 6348 units at current price of 3.33, the total market value is $21,139.
By using 10 years as an estimate (the actual is probably 10 years 4 months from Oct 2007 to Feb 2018), a return of 37% from $21,139 from initial cost of $15,378, would be 3.2% annualised.
That said, by definition of XIRR, the $15,378 is not put in at the start but over 10 years, so the XIRR return would be much higher than the above mentioned 3.2%.
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……
This is not a writing about DCA but market timing. Buy at the top and nothing can save you whether it is lump sum or DCA, unless valuation is reasonable and company grow out of it.
Move the initial period one year earlier or later and the results will be much different.
Also as pointed out by ghchua, DCA fixed invested amount not purchase unit. Your exercise is saying, "hey, price drop I feel poor so I buy less." and "Hey, price is increasing, I feel richer and I am buying more."
Hi Donmihaihai
Thanks for pointing out.
I reworked my exercise above as per my reply to Relf.
Thanks!
Telecom industries is facing technological challenge from virtual telco and the traditional high return from voice call and sms is replaced by internet calls and mobile message. With the new virtual telco offering $19 for unlimited data (first 3000 customers), only corporate and ignorant customers will sign up with Singtel. By the way, the virtual telco is using Singtel network…
Hi Unknown
Yeah I saw those unlimited data offering and indeed it is very interesting that the traditional telco aspect of offering data and prepaid are soon outdated and non-competitive. They definitely need to go via the IOT and network route in order to compete for lesser space in the industry.
is this exercise valid on then large amount of CDG shares that you are holding?
Hi Jalan Jalan
Yes so far still valid.
Im still down on my cdg so far 🙂
as a practioner of DCA, you will likely be doing that for a variety of stocks and across a range of industries. Then taking into account the entire portfolio, its likely that DCA will make sense. My portfolio is a business trusts and reits portfolio so the higher dividend compensates. also i reinvest my dividends
Hi Victor
Thanks for adding that important point, totally agree with what you said.
Hi B,
Firstly, Happy CNY to you and your family and wishing you a blessed year ahead. I'm sorry but do pardon this comment of mine. I believe that DCA is a fixed amount investment that is done on a regular schedule. As written in this post and some comments above, I do have another point which might be excluded – which is the frequency of regular schedule.
As written on your post that the schedule is based on Singtel's dividend schedule (which is 2x per year). In this instance, I feel that the DCA methodology is not well made used of due to the relatively small frequency and prices tends to be a little higher or irrelevant during CD/XD period and even days prior to the release of it's financial result as more speculators are in action.
On a side note, if one is practicing DCA on Singtel for such a long period with higher frequency, this person would require relatively deep pocket to reduce on the transaction fees OR he/she will be faced with relatively sharp amount in respect to the transaction fees for each purchase.
Please pardon me again for the comment.
Hi Sleepydevil
Dont be sorry. You made very good sense and are obviously a very smart person.
There's plenty to learn from the mistakes 🙂
Ive also read on your post on Singtel 🙂
Nice examples – just goes to show that DCA isn't a fool-proof strategy. It's so tempting to keep buying as prices fall, to lower your cost base (and make you feel like you're not losing as much money!), but no matter what your strategy is, you'll only do well by buying good businesses at good valuations in the long run.
Hi Frankie
Indeed you are spot on.
I guess there are no best strategy fits all regardless what they are. It needs to fit into your strength as well.
Hi Frankie
Indeed you are spot on.
I guess there are no best strategy fits all regardless what they are. It needs to fit into your strength as well.
There is something wrong in your calc, DCA is Cost Averaging, not Unit Averaging, the result is counter intuitive.
anyway, without an actual excel worksheet,it is hard to spot where went wrong in the formula.
most people would be better off to buy using DCA method, but there is an issue on right exit strategy to avoid roller-coaster journey.
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Company name: UPSTOX FUNDING
Company Email: [email protected]
We Facilitate Bank instruments SBLC for Lease and Purchase. Whether you are a new startup, medium or large establishment that needs a financial solution to fund/get your project off the ground or business looking for extra capital to expand your operation,our company renders credible and trusted bank guarantee provider who are willing to fund and give financing solutions that suits your specific business needs.
We help you secure and issue sblc and bank guarantee for your trade, projects and investment from top AA rated world Banks like HSBC, Barclays, Dutch Ing Bank, Llyods e.t.c because that’s the best and safest strategy for our clients.e.t.c
DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS
1. Instrument: Funds backed Bank Guarantee(BG) ICC-600
2. Currency : USD/EURO
3. Age of Issue: Fresh Cut
4. Term: One year and One day
5. Contract Amount: United State Dollars/Euros (Buyers Face Value)
6. Price : Buy:32%+1, Lease: 4%+2
7. Subsequent tranches: To be mutually agreed between both parties
8. Issuing Bank: Top RATED world banks like HSBC, Barclays, ING Dutch Bank, Llyods e.t.c
9. Delivery Term: Pre advise MT199 or MT799 first. Followed By SWIFT MT760
10. Payment Term: MT799 & Settlement via MT103
11. Hard Copy: By Bank Bonded Courier
Interested Agents,Brokers, Investors and Individual proposing international project funding should contact us for directives.We will be glad to share our working procedures with you upon request.
Name: Muhammed Emir Harun
Contact Mail :[email protected]
Skype: [email protected]
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Hello Every One, My Name is Trevor Cohen live in Texas and life is worth living comfortably for me and my family now. I really have never seen goodness shown to me this much in my life as i am a struggling Dad with three kids and i have been going through a serious problem as my son encountered a terrible accident last week, and the doctors states that he needs to undergo a delicate surgery for him to be able to walk again, and i could not afford the bill for his surgery then i went to the bank for a loan and they turn me down stating that credit score was bad, from there i run to my father and some of my freinds but they could not help, then when i was surfing through the net i came across a loan lender EDWARD JONES who provides loans at an affordable interest rate of 2% and i have been hearing about so many scams on the internet but at this time, in my desperate situation i had no choice than to give it a try and surprisingly it was all like a dream, i received a loan of $85,000.00 and i payed for my son surgery and thank GOD today he is okay and can walk. I could in turn start something profitable with the remaining amount and i said to my self that i will shout loud to the world of the wonders of GOD to me through this GOD fearing lender EDWARD JONES and i will advise anyone in genuine and serious need of loan to contact this GOD fearing Company via: [email protected]
Hi,
This might sound controversial to some people, but remember, I’ve spent half a lifetime surrounded by people who have achieved great success (financial included), so I know what I’m talking about here…
Positive thinking is NOT enough to bring you wealth.
No matter what other self-help experts out there tell you, it is NOT enough.
Positive Thinking by itself = Future disappointment
What you need is…
Positive Thinking + Skills/Mindset + Action = Great wealth
Here’s how to become a complete and total MAGNET for money…
==> The REAL secret to Total Money Magnetism
If you want to become wealthy then you need to learn how to reprogram your mind to THINK like a millionaire.
Society has programmed so many incorrect thoughts about how money works that it takes a lot more than just positive thinking for you to become a magnet for it.
But… If you’re willing to change your way of thinking…
If you’re willing to forget the well meaning advice from your friends, family, school teachers, and so forth……If you’re willing to implant the brain of a millionaire into your head…
Then follow this link while it’s still online:
==> The REAL secret to Total Money Magnetism
I couldn’t recommend this any more highly.
It’s about to change your life for the better, if only you’re willing to take action and follow through with this.
Enjoy!
Kind regards,
[Dr. Steve G. Jones]
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Thanks
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We are authorized financial consultants providing reliable loans to individuals and funding for business, home, personal and projects start up. Are you tired of seeking loans or are you in any financial mess. Do you have a low credit score, and you will find it difficult to get loans from banks and other financial institutions? then worry no more for we are the solution to your financial misfortune. we offer all types of loan ranging from $5,000.00 to $650,000,000.00USD with a low interest rate of 2% and loan duration of 1 to 35 years to pay back the loan secure and unsecured. Are you losing sleep at nights worrying how to get a Legit Loan Lender? Contact us on the following Call/Text +1(415)630-7138 Email [email protected]
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